Glossary
Glossary
Area Under the Curve
A diagnostic test performance measure that reflects the model's ability to discriminate between true positive (outbreak) and true negative (no outbreak) scenarios. A higher AUC (closer to 1) signifies a more robust model for outbreak prediction and vice versa.
Average Weekly Maximum Temperature
Represents the 7-day average of daily maximum temperature measurements for the city from Monday to Sunday.
Average Weekly Precipitation
Represents the 7-day average of daily rainfall amount per day measurements for the city from Monday to Sunday.
Average Weekly Wind Speed
Represents the 7-day average of daily wind speed measurements for the city from Monday to Sunday.
General Linear Mixed Model (GLMM)
Negative Predictive Value (NPV)
Outbreak
A statistical tool used to analyze data that is non-normal and hierarchical or grouped data.
The degree of confidence that the absence of a predicted outbreak reflects reality.
The occurrence of more cases of disease than expected in a given area or among a specific group of people over a particular period of time.
Positive Predictive Value (PPV)
The degree of confidence that a predicted outbreak is an actual outbreak.
Sensitivity
Measures the model's ability to correctly identify actual outbreaks.
Specificity
Measures the model’s ability to avoid false positives, i.e., predicting outbreaks when none exist.